Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
Matthew J Salganik,
Ian Lundberg,
Alexander T Kindel,
Caitlin E Ahearn,
Khaled Al-Ghoneim,
Abdullah Almaatouq,
Drew M Altschul,
Jennie E Brand,
Nicole Bohme Carnegie,
Ryan James Compton,
Debanjan Datta,
Thomas Davidson,
Anna Filippova,
Connor Gilroy,
Brian J Goode,
Eaman Jahani,
Ridhi Kashyap,
Antje Kirchner,
Stephen McKay,
Allison C Morgan,
Alex Pentland,
Kivan Polimis,
Louis Raes,
Daniel E Rigobon,
Claudia V Roberts,
Diana M Stanescu,
Yoshihiko Suhara,
Adaner Usmani,
Erik H Wang,
Muna Adem,
Abdulla Alhajri,
Bedoor AlShebli,
Redwane Amin,
Ryan B Amos,
Lisa P Argyle,
Livia Baer-Bositis,
Moritz Büchi,
Bo-Ryehn Chung,
William Eggert,
Gregory Faletto,
Zhilin Fan,
Jeremy Freese,
Tejomay Gadgil,
Josh Gagné,
Yue Gao,
Andrew Halpern-Manners,
Sonia P Hashim,
Sonia Hausen,
Guanhua He,
Kimberly Higuera,
Bernie Hogan,
Ilana M Horwitz,
Lisa M Hummel,
Naman Jain,
Kun Jin,
David Jurgens,
Patrick Kaminski,
Areg Karapetyan,
EH Kim,
Ben Leizman,
Naijia Liu,
Malte Möser,
Andrew E Mack,
Mayank Mahajan,
Noah Mandell,
Helge Marahrens,
Diana Mercado-Garcia,
Viola Mocz,
Katariina Mueller-Gastell,
Ahmed Musse,
Qiankun Niu,
William Nowak,
Hamidreza Omidvar,
Andrew Or,
Karen Ouyang,
Katy M Pinto,
Ethan Porter,
Kristin E Porter,
Crystal Qian,
Tamkinat Rauf,
Anahit Sargsyan,
Thomas Schaffner,
Landon Schnabel,
Bryan Schonfeld,
Ben Sender,
Jonathan D Tang,
Emma Tsurkov,
Austin van Loon,
Onur Varol,
Xiafei Wang,
Zhi Wang,
Julia Wang,
Flora Wang,
Samantha Weissman,
Kirstie Whitaker,
Maria K Wolters,
Wei Lee Woon,
James Wu,
Catherine Wu,
Kengran Yang,
Jingwen Yin,
Bingyu Zhao,
Chenyun Zhu,
Jeanne Brooks-Gunn,
Barbara E Engelhardt,
Moritz Hardt,
Dean Knox,
Karen Levy,
Arvind Narayanan,
Brandon M Stewart,
Duncan J Watts,
Sara McLanahan
May 02, 2020
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families...