Probable Maximum Flood – The Potential for Estimation in the UK using ReFH2

Tracey Haxton, Gianni Vesuviano, Samuel Pucknell, Thomas Kjeldsen

OAI: oai:purehost.bath.ac.uk:publications/ff360efb-8264-4359-b4b8-3478b525852f • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.117

The current reservoir safety guidance within the UK recommends the use of the FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff model to estimate PMF (probable maximum flood) peak flows for reservoirs within the highest risk category (A). However, the FSR/FEH model has been superseded by the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model for all other flood risk purposes in the UK. This study develops a new modelling framework for PMF estimation using ReFH2 by translating the assumptions made within the current FSR/FEH PMF procedure and applying these within the ReFH2 rainfall-runoff model. Peak flows from the methodology are compared with those from the FSR/FEH model for 400þ catchments. The study highlights the potential for ReFH2 to be used as the rainfall-runoff model for all return periods, up to and including the PMF, thereby paving the way for using the ReFH2 model for reservoir safety studies.

FSR/FEH ReFH dams flood estimation probable maximum flood reservoirs /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312 name=Water Science and Technology